A spread model of flash worms

I can't let another week go by and not post a paper on worm modeling. This one looks at a more rigorous model of how a "Flash Worm" would work. Some decent math, it's worth the effort to make sure you understand the equations.

In this work we we introduce a mathematical model for epidemics of worms using hit-list spreading technique. Flash worms to infect the whole vulnerable population. The estimated infection time shows that even heavy network worm can potentially infect large-scale vulnerable population within few seconds. Primarily the work is based on results of the work Top Speed of Flash Worms by S. Staniford et al.. We also genralize infection doubling technique used to increase a resilience of flash worms epidemics. It took the whole day for Code Red I v2 to spread among over 350,000 Internet hosts. Slammer worm infected more than 90 percent of up to 100,000 vulnerable hosts within 10 minutes (Inside the Slammer Worm by D. Moore et al.), Witty worm infected almost all of its 12,000 victims in 45 minutes (The Spread of the Witty Worm by C. Shannon and D. Moore).

Source: A spread model of flash worms,Yury Bulygin.